四大名捕

一 |     【文/观察者网专栏作者 侯峰】 任期的最后一天，拜登选择了在南卡罗来纳州黑人教堂社区度过，鼓励情绪低落的民主党同仁不要放弃希望。    Sputnik: How do you assess the results of the XIV BRICS Summit for Russia and India?,Denis Alipov: The XIV BRICS Summit held on 23 June this year was certainly another significant step in the development of the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] grouping, which in essence reflects the formation of a new reality in international relations - the transition from a unipolar system to a polycentric world order.,The important thing is that, against the backdrop of geopolitical collisions, the five countries send a powerful message of common understanding of global processes - from reforming the multilateral system of economic governance to the situation in disarmament and non-proliferation, information security, counter-terrorism and other challenges. There was a clear consensus against arbitrary sanctions, which are the exclusive prerogative of the UN Security Council. We also shared a disapproval of the distorting effects of any discriminatory measures in international trade, which mainly affect developing countries.,Of course, our main target now is to build a smooth and reliable system of mutual settlements as an alternative to a compromised mechanism based on the dominance of the US dollar. We suggest developing a new international currency, to connect the banks of the BRICS countries to the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages, SPFS (a SWIFT analogue), to integrate national payment systems into a unified network for cross-border clearing settlements.,Clearly, no less importantly are steps to strengthen BRICS’ sectoral cooperation, which, according to the results of this year's work, continues to expand in the spheres of health, science and technology, space, etc. The New Development Bank, having a loan portfolio of $29Bln, stands out for its successful project activities.,The BRICS+ High-level Forum on Sustainable Development received a great response, which demonstrated the considerable interest developing countries have in cooperating with BRICS, and the positive global agenda that the grouping is building.,I believe that the BRICS, contrary to criticism, will have an increasing influence on world processes.,Sputnik: How does India and China's interaction within the BRICS framework unfold against the backdrop of the territorial dispute between the two countries in Ladakh? And how does this disagreement generally affect how the 'Five' interact and work with each other? Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday said that “common interests of India and China 'far outweigh' the differences” at a meeting with India’s ambassador to Beijing - is that really true?,Denis Alipov: Interaction within BRICS is mature and constructive. The active participation of India and China in all BRICS events this year clearly demonstrates this. The most important thing is that the member states use this platform not to antagonize each other but to promote mutually beneficial cooperation and synergy of interests.,The "Five" offer an extensive common agenda on these very foundations, that in one way or other will also contribute to overcoming bilateral disagreements.,Sputnik: Does BRICS plan to expand in the near future (according to media reports, China is in favor of this), and how do Russia and India view this?,Denis Alipov: The interest of like-minded countries in the "Five" is proof positive of how inclusive the association is, its openness to cooperation with all constructively minded partners, ready to seek answers to the challenges which are facing the international community at present.,Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that the discussion of BRICS expansion is justified and timely. The idea itself received principled support at the XIV BRICS Summit. Another thing to remember is that haste in this matter may be counterproductive. It is necessary to think in detail about the principles, standards and procedures of such a process, which should be developed through debate and by consensus. The main thing is that the accession of new members will help to increase the effectiveness and practical impact of the “Five's” activities.,Sputnik: How do you assess BRICS' role as a platform for building relations between the members of the association and enhancing relations between Russia and India in particular?,Denis Alipov: BRICS plays an important role in building relations between member countries. It has a great deal of institutional capacity and experience in practical cooperation. As I have already said, the “Five” share a common understanding of the need to build an equitable and fair polycentric model of the global system that corresponds with the political, economic and cultural diversity of today's world and meets the interests of all its states.,The decisions made at this platform undoubtedly also contribute to enhancing cooperation between India and Russia. It is sufficient to cite a few examples of the mechanisms that have been created: the New Development Bank, the Vaccine Research and Development Center, and the Joint Committee on Space Cooperation. Each of them provides a platform for experts to share experiences and find promising solutions in specific areas, and they can use this useful experience both at home and with regard to the interaction between our two countries.,BRICS May Defuse Frozen Border Issues Between India and China, Expert Says27 June, 10:14 GMT,Sputnik: India has recently come under pressure from the West because of its balanced stance on Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Have the anti-Russian sanctions affected the cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi? And have you personally noticed any changes in the Indian position?,Denis Alipov: The partnership between Russia and India rests on a deep strategic foundation, drawing its strengths not only from strong historical roots, but also on a coinciding vision of the future world order. As you see, the external conjunction is incapable of affecting our relations in any meaningful way. We have regularly seen evidence of this in statements by the Indian leadership in recent months.,We are grateful to New Delhi for its objective assessment of the Ukrainian events. Clearly, they understand the background of the present geopolitical and geo-economic situation and the forced nature of Russia's actions in Ukraine. They see the destructive role of illegitimate restrictions in the genesis of the present global food and energy crisis, the responsibility for which the West seeks to place entirely on our country.,India does not support attempts to isolate Russia in multilateral forums and is critical of the West's wish to reduce the international agenda to the conflict in question, ignoring other key global and regional problems, which the West itself has exacerbated significantly. The pressure exerted by the West, aggressively imposing its conditions about who one can and cannot be friends with, causes the rejection of such diktat.,At the same time, we must be realistic about what is happening: India is interested in developing cooperation with the rest of the world, including the United States and Europe. National interests and the need to preserve strategic autonomy guide the Indians in their actions, rejecting the very idea of dividing lines and the paradigm of bloc confrontation.,As for the sanctions as such, they certainly throw up challenges, which will require a certain time to adapt and, I am sure, will be overcome in time. The main thing is that our cooperation actively continues because it is based on common interests and an understanding of each other's special place in mutual strategic arrangements.,Sputnik: In December 2021, Russia and India outlined many new goals for cooperation, including doubling mutual trade and investment. How realistic do these goals now seem?,Denis Alipov: First and foremost, it should be noted that the goals outlined in December 2021 at the annual bilateral summit in New Delhi are fully consistent with the enormous potential of our relations. The India-Russia partnership operates on all sorts of levels. We are expanding cooperation in communications, diamond processing, forestry, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, tourism, railroads, metallurgy, civil aviation, shipbuilding and oil refining. Our military and military-technical cooperation is being strengthened. We are progressively implementing the plans adopted at the 2019 Vladivostok Summit to work together in the Far Eastern and Arctic regions, and we are building up cooperation in the trade, economic, investment, banking and financial sectors.,The dynamics of bilateral trade speak for itself. According to India's statistics, from January to April 2022, it amounted to $6.4Bln. This is almost twice as much as for the same period last year. If we maintain these volumes throughout the year, we will have a turnover of more than $19Bln by the end of 2022. To put this in context, let me remind you that in the previous year we had an absolute record of $13.6Bln.,I expect that despite the West's sanctions against Russia, the positive dynamics of trade will continue. Unfortunately, in the first months after the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine there were certain difficulties with supplying Russian goods to India and vice versa. However, today we have successfully overcome most of these barriers. We are confident that Indian exports to Russia (including science-intensive ones) will gain momentum in the near future.,We see good prospects for Indian pharmaceutical products, leather and textiles, agricultural goods, components for machinery and equipment, telecommunications equipment, organic chemistry products. We expect growth in mutual turnover of services in such sectors as tourism, finance and insurance, telecommunications and information technology, transport and construction. We have great hopes for the implementation of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project.,The withdrawal of many western companies from the Russian market opens up many new opportunities for Indian businesses. The Russian business community is very serious about strengthening ties with India. Russia invites Indian companies in the aviation and metallurgical industries, in the wood-processing chain, and firms producing consumer goods for business cooperation.,Our main task today is to adjust our trade and economic relations to the new realities, to synchronize the payment systems of the two countries, giving priority to the increased use of national currencies.,Sputnik: US media giants, despite the diversity of the Indian media sphere, have been successful in infiltrating it. How far do you think has US propaganda penetrated local media? How do you view your interaction with the Indian media against this backdrop?,Denis Alipov: Indeed, western media has taken a very strong hold around the world and in India as well. These circumstances – and many local analysts point this out – limit the ability of national media outlets to offer their audiences an independent view of global processes. Much of the content published here is reprints from Reuters, the Associated Press, and AFP, all of which openly promote the interests of the so-called collective West, not shying away from fostering Russophobic sentiments and trafficking fake news.,India Discussing Rupee-Ruble Payment Mechanism With Russia24 June, 13:35 GMT,This is especially evident in the Indian media's coverage of events around Ukraine. Local newspapers sometimes publish absolute nonsense, exposing a basic ignorance of the region and history. There is no shortage of blatantly ordered articles aimed at denigrating the activities of Russian companies in India. This is nothing but an attempt at unfair competition.,Obviously, we respond appropriately. We publish our own material and rebuttals. We work with the press corps and explain all the nuances of the events from a historical and geopolitical point of view. We make active use of internet resources in this area.,It is noteworthy that local authorities have also intervened in the situation. In April this year, India's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting issued recommendations to satellite TV channels, indicating the unacceptability of spreading inaccurate and misleading information, including in the context of covering Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.,We know that the vast majority of our Indian friends, including in the journalistic community, do not share the one-sided view of the situation imposed on them. They prefer to trust facts, which, incidentally, are in the public domain - every day relevant materials are posted on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense's websites. They can also be found on the embassy's website and its social media accounts.,Some Indian journalists visited the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, wanting to see with their own eyes what was really going on. Their reports and interviews are now available to the public. I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude for their work.,Furthermore, I would like to thank our audience on social media. Thanks to their comments and support, we can see that attempts to tarnish Russia are doomed to failure.,Sputnik: You are an expert on India and speak Hindi. Please tell us, what made you fall in love with this country?,Denis Alipov: India for me is a life-long journey. I have spent more than 27 years here, studied its history in college, and been directly involved with the development of relations with it throughout my tenure.,As it did for my mentor and predecessor, the late Ambassador Alexander Kadakin [Russia's ambassador to India from 2009 to 2017], India became for me a 'Karmabhoomi' - a land of action.,India is an incredible country, an ancient civilization that combines centuries-old traditions and modern trends, the diversity of cultures, languages and beliefs. It is the brightest embodiment of the formula of unity in diversity. Rapid economic, scientific and technological development, the large young active population, the impressive growth of authority in the global arena have ensured its strong place among the world powers that will determine the future of our planet.。然而就在一周前，拜登还是信心满满的。在一场外交政策的告别演说中，他指出，在与中国的长期竞争中，现在的美国比他上任时处于更佳的战略地位，并称过去有专家预测中国经济将不可避免地超越美国，但在他执政后，“中国将永远无法超越我们”。但显然，人们并没有把他的豪言壮语当回事。根据CNN1月16日的报道，由SSRS进行的一项最新民调显示，拜登总统离任时的支持率将是其任期内的最低水平。美国人普遍认为，拜登的四年任期是失败的，他的政府几乎没有扭转人们对国家整体状况或经济的长期负面看法。美国民意调查机构盖洛普公司去年12月的一份调查显示，美国民众不认可拜登政府和国会的工作，对经济表现持负面评价，并对国家发展方向感到不满。调查显示，仅39%的民众认可拜登政府工作，仅17%的民众认可国会工作。民调和民主党败选都说明，拜登四年执政给国家和世界带来更多的是负面影响。“中国将永远无法超越我们”？2021年，中美GDP差距为5.2万亿美元，中国GDP占比美国GDP约77%，达到历史高点。之后，2022年，中美GDP差距扩大至7.47万亿美元，中国GDP占比美国GDP约70%。2023年，美国GDP为27.4万亿美元，中国GDP为17.9万亿美元，差距再次扩大到9.5万亿美元，中国GDP相当于美国的约65.4%。2024年前三季度，中国占美国GDP比重为61%。

二 | 继西方传媒及御用社交媒体、公知炒作的“中国崩溃论”、“中国威胁论”之后，“中国崛起见顶论”一时间甚嚣尘上。看上去中美GDP的差距扩大，似乎印证了西方社会流行的“70%魔咒”。所谓“70%魔咒”，是指只要一个国家GDP达到美国的70%，就会遭遇美国的打压而逐渐衰落。20世纪80年代末，日本GDP一度占到美国的70%，但随着美国借助《广场协议》等一系列打压，日本90年代泡沫经济破灭后，陷入失去的三十年，如今GDP总量只有美国的15%左右。1971年苏联总产值是美国GDP的70.1%。

三 | 之后，在美西方的地缘政治围堵下，加上内部的腐败变质，苏联经济每况愈下。在颜色革命的加持下，最终于1991年12月25日土崩瓦解，彻底消除了美苏冷战最大的威胁。那么，在拜登疯狂的围堵打压下，中国会步日本、苏联后尘吗？ 2021年末到2024年一季度末，人民币对美元贬值超过10%至1:7.3。

四 | 若按2021年末不变汇率重新核算去年中国经济，中国GDP首次突破20万亿美元，占美国比重超73%，超越苏日曾经达到的高度。事实上，按照国际货币基金组织和世界银行的购买力平价法测算，中国GDP在2016年就已追上美国。2023年中国GDP为32.93万亿“国际美元”，美国为27.36万亿，中国已经是美国的120%。然而，以美元为基础的GDP计算方法像一个数字游戏，比如中国相对应的国内GDP增长是5%，而美国相对应国内的GDP增量为2点多，显然中国的增长速度高过美国。美国利用地缘政治危机，在欧洲、中东拱起战火，在亚洲炒作“中国威胁论”，极大增加了全球经济的危机感，美国股市和投资成了全球游资唯一的避风港和保险池。再加上美国用各种金融手段，比如加息等，大幅提升美元价值，导致全世界的货币，包括人民币对美元贬值。由此相对于用美元计算的中国名义GDP就变成只有4，而美国的GDP提升到3或更多。正是这种数字游戏，增加了拜登认为中国永远无法超越美国的胆气。越吹越大的金融泡沫事实上，2021年到2023年间，美国年均通胀率超过7%，同期中国低于2%。2022年底，根据标普公司的统计，美国大中城市的房价，相比于2019年上涨37%。为了应对高通胀，从2022年起，美联储又连续加息，2024年美国房贷利率已经高达6%-7%。而美国国债已经在2024年年中超过35万亿美元，主要原因是联邦政府长期入不敷出，政府预算赤字“病根”难除。美国财政部数据显示，美国联邦政府2023财年财政赤字达到近1.7万亿美元，比上一财年增加23%。为了填补亏空，美国政府通常会发行国债筹款，债务“雪球”由此越滚越大。1990年时，美国政府债务总额约为3.2万亿美元，2000年增至5.62万亿美元，2010年进一步突破13.5万亿美元。进入2020年，债务总额已达到27.7万亿美元，2023年更是突破34万亿美元。截至2025年1月10日，美国未偿债务总额达到36.17万亿美元。美国经济看上去不错，但那是美元堆出来的，欠债总是要还的。纽约时报1月15刊文指出：中国2024年的贸易顺差高达7万多亿人民币（折合美元接近1万亿），创下记录。世界另一端的情况几乎截然相反：美国去年的贸易逆差预计将达到约1万亿美元，但中国的贸易顺差中只有三分之一来自美国。世界各地的国家也与美国有巨大的贸易顺差——虽然规模远不及中国，但加起来越来越大。有些国家需要用与美国的贸易顺差来弥补本国与中国的贸易逆差。问题是美国靠什么来弥补巨大的全球贸易逆差？美国能为世界提供什么样货真价实物美价美的商品呢？美国大宗出口的除了农产品、油气和军工产品，剩下的难道只能靠印制出口绿钞，就能确保拜登让美国永远立于不败之地的信念吗？ 显然中美名义GDP的差距拉大，并不反映中美的国力、实力和创造力的现实。

五 | 中国高科技领域快速崛起，威胁到美国霸权根基2019年5月15日，美国总统特朗普签署《保障信息与通讯技术及服务供应链安全》的行政令。该行政令宣布，为应对在信息和通讯技术及服务上面临的“重大国家安全威胁”，美国进入国家紧急状态。

六 | 从那天起，特朗普和拜登行政当局开始了对华为无所不用其极的打压，以期从根本上阻断中国高科技领域的追赶势头。这也意味着以华为为代表的中国高科技，已经让美国充分感觉到了致命威胁。在其后两届美国政府变本加厉地打压下，2021年华为智能手机的全球市场占有率跌至仅剩4%。但华为没有被打趴下，反而浴火重生。到2024年，华为智能手机强势回归，全年出货量4600万台，同比增长37%，市场份额高达16%，位居第二，实现了对苹果超越，势将重回巅峰。不仅如此，华为还建立起自己高端麒麟芯片在内的智能手机全产业链，鸿蒙生态跨界操作系统，并积极扩展到包括升腾Ascend 910C人工智能（AI）芯片，还有服务器在内的Atlas人工智能计算平台、华为云的物联网平台、以及华为高阶智能驾驶系统。拜登任期最得意之作，莫过于用高端芯片卡中国高科技，特别是人工智能研发的脖子。然而去年底，就在西方感觉中国AI似乎该断气之际，一个叫DeepSeek-V3的人工智能生成式大模型横空出世，性能匹敌GPT-4o。但DeepSeek-V3训练的预算却非常低，“2048个GPU、2个月、近600万美元”，相比之下，GPT-4o等模型的训练成本约为1亿美元，至少在万个GPU量级的计算集群上训练。最近公布的六代机、空警3000预警机，带电磁弹射的“无人机航母“076”型两栖攻击舰，以及高超音速导弹，都是一些遥遥领先的高科技装备，一旦入役，将极大改变现代战争的形态，重塑世界地缘政治的战略格局。这种不可思议的中国智慧，令拜登团队彻底不知所措。至于阻止中国进步，中断中国超越美国的步伐，人走茶凉的拜登恐怕只能哀叹一声了。本文系观察者网独家稿件，文章内容纯属作者个人观点，不代表平台观点，未经授权，不得转载，否则将追究法律责任。关注观察者网微信guanchacn，每日阅读趣味文章。